This is how Apple's first foldable iPhone is currently expected to look. | Image by FrontPageTech
While the mobile industry in its entirety is virtually guaranteed to contract this year due to a rise in retail prices caused by growing component costs, at least one important segment of the global smartphone market is likely to expand.
I'm talking about the currently Samsung-dominated foldable landscape, which might get a new champion in 2026... if Apple pulls off an early enough "iPhone Ultra" release.
Almost one in two foldables sold in North America this year could be iPhones
Apple will not only surpass but absolutely crush Samsung in North American foldable sales in 2026... according to this forecast. | Image by Counterpoint Research
I'll be honest with you, I'm finding it pretty hard to believe that the iPhone Fold (aka iPhone Ultra) can single-handedly account for 46 percent of all foldable sales in North America in 2026 even if the device manages to start shipping to its earliest adopters in September or October.
It's not (just) a matter of demand, mind you, but whether or not Apple will be able to manufacture the millions of units needed to satisfy that demand quickly enough. And if the initial release is pushed back to November or December, the chances of hitting 46 percent market share fall from unlikely to essentially non-existent.
Huge drops predicted for Samsung, Motorola, and Google
If we assume that the latest Counterpoint Research forecast will prove accurate as far as Apple's numbers are concerned (which is obviously not guaranteed at the moment), that means North America's top three foldable vendors today will all suffer massive declines in 2026.
Recommended For You
Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip families could soon lose a lot of their mass appeal. | Image by PhoneArena
We're talking an abrupt fall from 51 percent to 29 percent share for current top dog Samsung, a reduction of Motorola's 2025 slice of the pie almost in half, and a slip towards nearly complete market segment irrelevancy for Google.
That's the Apple effect in action for you, and these huge declines are expected to happen in spite of Samsung and Motorola's best efforts to diversify their product portfolios with an upcoming "wide-type Galaxy Z Fold variant" and a recently unveiled book-style Razr Fold model, respectively.
How impressive will the market's overall growth be?
If Counterpoint Research is right, very impressive. Specifically, foldable shipments are projected to jump by no less than 48 percent in North America in 2026 compared to last year... unless, of course, the "iPhone Ultra" ends up being released later than currently expected by most analysts.
Where do you think Apple will rank in the foldable vendor chart this year?
If you're wondering exactly where the segment-leading demand for Apple's first-ever foldable device might come from, the answer is apparently a two-parter. On one hand, the Cupertino-based tech giant can rely on iPhone devotees who've never even entertained the possibility of buying a Galaxy Z Fold, Z Flip, or Motorola Razr.
On the other hand, it seems a relatively large number of Z Fold, Z Flip, Razr, and Pixel Fold owners could be convinced to jump ship, although I believe that will greatly depend on how different the iPhone Ultra (or iPhone Fold) ends up looking from these existing products, and perhaps most importantly, its retail price.
Will Apple rule the foldable world in 2026?
As big as North America is (both as a geographical region and as a smartphone market), I'm not convinced Apple will manage to convert this predicted regional supremacy into global domination as early as this year... even assuming these predictions come true.
Apple is expected to sell loads of foldables around the world in 2026, but fall short of the segment's top position. | Image by Counterpoint Research
That's because this latest Counterpoint Research report highlights Samsung as a "more resilient" foldable vendor on the world stage, and a global forecast put together by the same analytics firm just last month had Apple in second place, with a projected 28 percent market share, narrowly behind the leader's dominant 31 percent slice of the pie.
To me, even that sounds like a very optimistic scenario for the first foldable iPhone, but I guess we'll find out in eight or nine months if I'm right or these analysts and industry pundits are better at predicting the future of perhaps the most volatile of all smartphone market segments today.
Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
A discussion is a place, where people can voice their opinion, no matter if it
is positive, neutral or negative. However, when posting, one must stay true to the topic, and not just share some
random thoughts, which are not directly related to the matter.
Things that are NOT allowed:
Off-topic talk - you must stick to the subject of discussion
Offensive, hate speech - if you want to say something, say it politely
Spam/Advertisements - these posts are deleted
Multiple accounts - one person can have only one account
Impersonations and offensive nicknames - these accounts get banned
To help keep our community safe and free from spam, we apply temporary limits to newly created accounts:
New accounts created within the last 24 hours may experience restrictions on how frequently they can
post or comment.
These limits are in place as a precaution and will automatically lift.
Moderation is done by humans. We try to be as objective as possible and moderate with zero bias. If you think a
post should be moderated - please, report it.
Have a question about the rules or why you have been moderated/limited/banned? Please,
contact us.
![T-Mobile customers get confirmations for account activity they didn't authorize [UPDATED]](https://m-cdn.phonearena.com/images/article/179616-wide-two_350/T-Mobile-customers-get-confirmations-for-account-activity-they-didnt-authorize-UPDATED.webp)
Things that are NOT allowed:
To help keep our community safe and free from spam, we apply temporary limits to newly created accounts: